Predicting a candidate's chances on the market

In our newest "how can we help you?" thread, a reader asks:

Preparing myself for the market next year. Wondering if anyone could give me their sense of my chances based on my overall profile: PhD candidate from a top-10 leiter program, 2 publications in good, but not tip-top journals, and a person of colour.

Personally, I'm not sure that it's possible to predict a person's chances on the market with much (if any) reliability, particularly with this kind of broad information. In my experience serving on a bunch of search committees, some good publications and PhD program reputation can get your file taken seriously. But there's virtually always a large number of similarly qualified candidates with similar profiles for the same position. So, things really come down to the details of a candidate's dossier (their writing sample, research statement, teaching dossier, etc.), perceived "fit" for the position, idiosyncratic views and preferences of search committee members, etc. So, if I were a candidate, I wouldn't focus on trying to predict anything. Instead, I'd just focus on presenting myself as the best candidate possible and see what happens.

But these are just my thoughts. What are yours? 

Comments

[anon]

I second what Marcus is saying. I also think thatat the end of the day it is all about whether you are a good fit or not (so publications for instance will be taken as a good indication at some places whereas at other places they won’t matter as much as your teaching or mentoring etc). So it is hard to predict.

[not predicting]

just to add a small point: When I as a grad student (at a top 10 Leiter program) I was told by a senior faculty that it’s a disaster that grad students publish… (which I dont agree by the way). So while publications will definitely be impressive for some faculty (they are for me!), there is a possibility that others will not like it. Also, there are usually lots of details committees take into consideration (for instance, some jobs at Canadian schools require that you know French, so not knowing French alone can ruin your chances - because there’s always another candidate who has exactly the same qualifications as yours, plus that they know French).

[TTprof]

I agree with Marcus that it is unwise to attempt to predict what is fundamentally unpredictable - there are simply too many variables at play. I will say that from my own experiences on hiring committees, this person has definitely met the minimum expectations re: having published in journals.

I realize that none of this is comforting. Being on the job market is really scary. I don't think there's anything anyone can say or do to make that fear any more manageable. Echoing Marcus, my advice is to spend as much time preparing the things that *are* in your control - write and revise and revise and polish all your materials. Get someone to test-run interview questions with you. Make sure your job talk is ready to go and that it is the best, most interesting talk you've ever given. Practice it in front of audiences. Think seriously about what you want from your career and what you offer the profession - as a researcher, as a teacher, and as a colleague - and think about how to communicate this to various kinds of audiences.

Again, there's no way to predict what will happen. All that you can do (all that any of us can do) is (1) make sure that you're not making it easy for hiring committees to dismiss you - you do this by having good research statements, writing samples, teaching dossiers, letters, etc., and (2) make sure that in executing (1), you can live with yourself knowing that you gave your best effort. If things don't work out this time on the job market, you learn from those experiences and revise your materials, etc. so as to give your best effort in light of that new knowledge the next time.

Make sure, also, that you are making the best use of the institutional support available to you. If you're coming from a "top-10 leiter program," chances are good that folks there are invested in your success and placement, at minimum for the sake of their ranking if not also because they take mentorship seriously. Don't be afraid to ask for their help and time. It is in their interests to provide it to you (and it is also part of their job to provide this assistance).

Good luck OP!

[M]

I've been on the market for many years (and I am again as I am about to lose my tenured line to cuts). There is no predicting anything. Anything you might think should figure into one's person's success on the market will show up in many other amazing job applicants who cannot secure jobs. People from top 3 PhD programs with amazing publications and wide-ranging teaching experience can struggle to get jobs; people without such qualifications often nevertheless get jobs, sometimes good jobs. Sometimes certain (social identity, or hot topic research, etc.) factors seem relevant to why someone did or did not get a leg up; other times it is as opaque as the elusive notion of 'fit' with AOS/AOC needs, or fit with the people who know people or who get along well with the personalities in the dept which is hiring.

Best advice is just this: do your best with what you can control, and assume that you are outstanding even if you do not get interviews or a job. Because that is how oversaturated the job market is. It's not a sign there is anything wrong with you; it's a sign that too many of us are worth hiring for only a handful of jobs.

[G]

I agree with Marcus and others that it is impossible to predict especially given the limited information.

I know that this is not quite helpful. If anything, perhaps I would say this: if OP's two publications are both in their AOS, and if OP is interested in a teaching-oriented job with the same AOS (and if there is no other expert in this area in that program), then OP probably does not have to worry too much about the "research" part of the application.

[Trevor Hedberg]

One of the biggest variables in how competitive a candidate will be is their central AOS, and that information isn't mentioned in the OP. It's very tough regardless but especially so in areas where only a dozen jobs are posted each year.

[AnonyBons]

The other biggest variable in how competitive a candidate will be is their interview, and that information can't be gleaned from reading a CV. So there's really no way of knowing what someone's chances are as it depends on the whole package.

[sorry things are like this]

If you are a POC one thing you might want to unfortunately be prepared for is possibly getting more interviews than white counterparts, but not having those interviews pan out. If that happens, it won't be because of something you did. It will be because, in my experience with hiring, there are some people (unfortunately often overlapping with those who think of themselves as the champions of diversity) who like to put token people on the interview list and then are too racist to take those people seriously as philosophers. I've seen this pan out both with my colleagues, who also might do this to please administrators (but then one has to fight tooth and nail with those same colleagues to get them to consider people who aren't white), but also with friends who were on the market. Being on the job market is so hard and makes you so insecure. I don't have broader empirical data to support this, but I really have anecdotally noticed a serious amount of this stuff happening, and so it is worth going into things mentally prepared for this specific weird and cruel twist.

[OP]

OP here: Thanks all for the encouragement, as well as the reminder to focus on what I can control. If anyone is still interested in weighing in, for what it is worth, I work on Africana Philosophy.

[Superpredictor]

63.29%

[Prognosticator]

The philosophy job market is a zone of scarcity and compared to other selective application processes (like med school), getting a TT job in philosophy is very capricious and hard to predict based simply off someone's resume. Compare this to law school where a high enough LSAT and GPA will ensure you get into at least one of Harvard, Chicago, Yale, or Stanford.

That said, I think the tenor of the comments so far is too pessimistic. OP is a top prospect with nearly all the things that a successful candidate will have on their resume.

Here is my handicapping, to be taken with a grain of salt:

1. You are a very competitive candidate. Job applications are definitely worth your time, and no entry level position that fits your AOS is totally out of reach for you.
2. If you apply broadly, the chances that you will get a TT job somewhere are good, 80%+. There is a lower (20-40%) chance that you will get a job at an R1, a SLAC, or a prestigious fellowship with a small course load.
3. If you're willing to take a non-TT instructor/lecturer job, you can be practically certain of getting at least that for the year after you graduate.
4. You have nearly all of the ingredients for success. You will help departments achieve their diversity goals; you are at a Leiter Top 10 department, and you have two good, but not superlative, journal placements. The main way you could improve your chances at this point is through conferences and networking. I would aim to find an outside committee member who is influential and respected in your field (hint: start with living people you cite in your dissertation). Hopefully, this person can write a rec. letter for you. Anecdotally, it seems to me that those with friends on the faculty at other Leiterific places punch above their weight on the market when compared to those who only have professional friends at their own institution.

[took me 20 interviews]

I tend to be a bit more pessimistic about the job market. When I graduated, I had three publications in Leiterific journals. My experience aligns with what “sorry things are like this” describes: numerous interviews without any success. Not even a postdoc, non-tenure-track, or VAP. I secured my current stable position when I had five publications, two and a half years after graduation, after my 20th interview.

The idea of departments caring about “diversity goals” just makes me laugh. If anyone cared about it, they didn't show it. While CVs may not be the most reliable indicator, when individuals with less impressive CVs consistently secure jobs you’ve applied for again and again, it becomes difficult not to suspect that the underlying factor is race.

Of course, it’s possible that the problem is just me. In addition to being a person of color, I am also linguistically diverse. This concept is not difficult to comprehend: it simply means being non-European and a second-language English speaker (or possibly even a third-language speaker).

Given my respect for this website, I make an effort to moderate my own language by using Apple Intelligence.