How Long Should You Stay in the Game?

Recently, I’ve been contemplating a question that one of our readers asked a several weeks ago. The core of the question was this: at what point after beginning your job search does it become unrealistic to expect to land a tenure-track job? Marcus cited some data on this and some caveats with interpreting that data. (In a nutshell, your chances of getting a tenure-track job appear to drop off significantly after your second year on the market, but it’s hard to determine how much is attributable to lots of people quitting the job market after 2-3 unsuccessful years.) He also noted the importance of keeping one’s trajectory in mind.

I want to add a bit on this subject because it is a question I have considered often in the last few years. The moment when the question was most prominent in my mind was in April 2019. At that particular moment, I had submitted more than 100 job applications and gotten many interviews, but none of them had turned into an offer. So the immediate question was “What should I do if there’s no academic job waiting in the fall?” But there was also a further question: “Should I try again in the fall, or should I move on?” Now readers familiar with my posts over the years know that this bleak situation had a strangely happy ending. But that was far from guaranteed, and when I’m back on the market in the upcoming fall, there’s no certainty that a fortuitous outcome awaits. So I have already considered how much longer I’m willing to run the job market gauntlet. But I’ll admit that I’ve not developed a complete answer to that question yet.

One of the main complications is that my prior two job searches give evidence of an upward trajectory. During my first job search (2016-2017), I ultimately landed a postdoc but had only a few interviews prior to that point. During my second job search (2018-2019), I ultimately landed another postdoc, but I had more than 3 times as many interviews overall (including many for tenure-track positions) and actually had 3 job offers in hand at the end of May. Theoretically, since I have further improved my professional credentials over the last couple years, I should continue to be competitive on the market. But the job market is likely to still be affected by the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic (likely meaning fewer jobs than usual), so who really knows whether that will happen? If things don’t go well, it might be worth taking another shot on the market on the basis of my past performance.

Another factor in my own case is my financial situation. I am debt-free and have saved a substantial amount of money during the postdoctoral positions. (My salary is not extraordinary but it’s almost triple what I was usually making as a graduate student.) This means that being in between jobs for a while – for instance, if I need to transition into non-academic employment – would not pose a huge problem. Thus, I don’t need to pursue and accept any academic position I could manage just to stay afloat financially.

There are, of course, other factors that impact how long one should stay on the market beyond financial considerations and one’s career trajectory. Moving around the country (or to a different country) can take a heavy toll on a person and their family. At a certain point, people usually want to settle down and stop bouncing around from place to place. There’s also the psychological toll of the job market and the soul-sapping cost of countless rejection notices and awkward interviews. So how does someone put all this information together and answer the original question? When is it appropriate to stop searching for an academic job?

As is common with issues of this complexity, the answer will depend a great deal on the context, but we can still identify some of the critical questions that would need to be answered to make a decision here. Here's a quick summary of what some of those would be:

1. Are you willing to endure the psychological toll of another job market run?
2. Are you in a financial situation that makes it viable to make another job market run?
3. Are you willing to undertake the potential opportunity costs associated with stringing together additional temporary jobs while seeking a tenure-track appointment?
4. Are you willing to relocate to continue the pursuit of a tenure-track job even if you only land a temporary position on this job market run?
5. Would your partner and/or children be willing to continue relocating as you attempt to land stable long-term employment?
6. Do your previous runs on the job market provide evidence that you have a reasonable chance of landing a long-term academic position?
7. If you answer #6 with a “no,” then have you done something recently that might meaningfully increase your marketability?

I suspect that a “no” answer to any of the first 4 questions indicates you ought not to make another run on the job market – or perhaps that you make one final run at a permanent job and then move onto other things if that gambit is unsuccessful. A “no” answer to question #5 would presumably entail that a lengthy discussion needs to occur between you and those substantially impacted by your decision. If you can’t reach an agreement on this matter or otherwise compromise, this could also constitute a sufficient reason not to make another run on the job market.

I want to give a bit more information about the final two questions on this list. Every year, there are graduate students who earn their PhDs but get no interviews in their first run on the job market. If they elect to run the gauntlet again the following year, they will have at least one improved credential – having the PhD in hand instead of being ABD – and perhaps they will have an additional publication or some other notable distinction to add to their CV. But a portion of these graduate students will then go on the job market a second time and get the same result: no interviews. For these graduate students and others with similar results at later career stages, it may be time to begin a transition to another career.

While there is a great deal of randomness in the outcome of the job market, if you’ve submitted 100+ applications in total over two job cycles and gotten 0 interviews, then you will most likely see the same results on your third job market run unless something about your credentials dramatically changes. Realistically, you will need at least a handful of first-round interviews to land a position – the vast majority of candidates who get first round interviews do not get job offers. So if you are struggling to get even one interview, that’s an indication that you’re very unlikely to have the breakthrough you’re looking for. It is still possible, but it is astoundingly improbable. Some people worry about what they might miss out on if they leave the job market too early – what might have happened if they had stuck around for one more year – but I think an equally significant problem is that some of us early-career philosophers stick around for too long. In doing so, we squander years where we could be making more money, working toward promotions, and carving out fulfilling careers in non-academic jobs while we tread water in temporary positions and cram together application materials for another job cycle.

With all this in mind, I still don’t know whether 2021-2022 will be my last run on the academic job market. I may not be able to make that judgment until I know what my circumstances are when it concludes. Overall, I'm satisfied with the jobs I've held and my career trajectory thus far, but now that I'm more than 4 years past my dissertation defense, I recognize that there won’t be too many more cross-country moves and application cycles before I’m ready to steer my life in a different direction.

Comments

[Michel]

I'm pretty much in agreement, but want to add a caveat: if you're in an AOS with just a few jobs a year (say, 0-1, although I'd expect the upper threshold to be a fair bit higher), it's entirely normal to have 0 interviews a few years in a row. Your best chance is in your AOS, after all, and if there are 0 jobs in your AOS most years, it's unlikely the open searches will wake up to new demand for your AOS.

At that point, I think you're waiting for a bumper crop year to give you better information about your competitiveness.

For my part, 2019 was a huge bumper crop year in aesthetics, and I didn't get a single interview for those jobs despite a pretty serious influx of very good publications. So even though I had a first-round interview for a value theory position, I was demoralized and going to give up. (If I couldn't even land an interview in a year with 8 jobs...)

Happily, a local gig panned out in the end, and it was just good enough that I decided to stick around for a little longer, and it's now become a permanent and *very* good gig.

[Trevor Hedberg]

Michel -- That's a fair point, though I would find it hard to advise anyone to keep probing the academic job market year after year when their AOS usually has only a few job postings per year. That's such an unfavorable situation that even exemplary candidates will often see no meaningful results for many years even if they apply for positions every job cycle. I suspect they will often be better off seeking non-academic careers or building up a second AOS that is more marketable.

[aphilosopher]

A point I think often lost when discussing the opportunity cost is that the transition gets harder every year. A 30-year old just-minded PhD will have an easier time transitioning to a new career than a 40-year old who spent 10 years bouncing between temp jobs. The longer you stay on the academic market, the more ageism comes into play, the more failure you accrue on your resume, the more psychological damage you take, and (probably) the less flexibility you have in your personal life.

So, the opportunity cost isn't just lost *time* making higher wages, but decreased probability of getting a good position that pays those higher wages.

[Samuel Kampa]

Having transitioned out of academia and into the private sector a few years ago, I'd like to second aphilosopher's point. The longer you're in academia, the harder it is to prove to employers (a) that you *want* to leave academia and join their company, (b) that you won't jump ship in the event that academia suddenly comes a'callin', and (c) that your head isn't "in the clouds" from so many years in the ivory tower. Add agism on top of that, and it's clear that the opportunity cost is more than lost wages; it's lost competitiveness and leverage in the non-academic job market.

All that said, folks who've been grinding through temp positions shouldn't succumb to the sunk cost fallacy. If the clock has run out on your academic dream (due to (1)-(4) or whatever), it's still probably better to leave now than continue squeaking by, even if it would have been even better to leave x years ago.

[The longest waiting room]

To what extent does having a VAP each year provide evidence of landing a permanent gig? Maybe that’s not an easily answered question. But I’ve been working on the assumption (I guess “hope” is more accurate) that it counts for something, e.g., it’s another line added to the CV.