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You should assume you're in the running until you send in the application. Then, assume you aren't until you get an interview request. Then, assume you're in the running until the day after the interview, at which point assume you aren't again. Repeat for every stage of the process.

It's hard to do, but it makes it all somewhat more bearable to be planning for the worst. The really hard part is when March comes around and you haven't even had an interview. Planning for exit strategies while the temporary market is still ongoing is really draining.

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