I was about to write a couple of papers on why we have no good evidence for determinism/physical-causal-closure and why the compatibilism debate is metaphysically irrelevant...until I discovered the papers were already written by Mark Balaguer!
(2009). The Metaphysical Irrelevance of the Compatibilism Debate (and, More Generally, of Conceptual Analysis), Southern Journal of Philosophy.
(2009). Why there are no good arguments for any interesting version of determinism, Synthese.
Although I was planning to argue for the same conclusions a bit differently -- I wanted to argue that we have no evidence for causal closure by way of various Simulation Hypotheses (existing online simulations, for instance, are almost entirely causally closed...except for the actions of the characters we make choices for) -- I'm very sympathetic with Balaguer's arguments, and encourage everyone to check them out, as well as his recent book through MIT Press, Free Will as an Open Scientific Problem.
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