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Not sure if the mathematics are correct. Assume that your aim is to publish 2-3 papers a year. The question is whether you need to produce many more papers, or whether you just need to take into account the time it takes to get them out (including several rejections, revise and resubmit, etc.). If it is the latter, you need a certain time for getting enough stuff into the system, as it were. If a paper is good, you will eventually find a venue for it, but it may take a couple of years.

Marcus Arvan

Lisa: the number of papers I feel like I need to get done during the summer is only partly based on math. It's also based on emotion. I just don't feel comfortable unless I've written that many paper. It may be irrational, but I can't help it!


Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.


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